a small dose of reality

Dick Morris is perhaps the American who is willing to discuss his first hand Hillary information:

Hillary’s flip flop on a deadline for troop withdrawal comes amid her continuing fall and Obama’s ongoing surge.

Hillary has been steadily losing ground to Obama since her announcement in January, especially among Afro-American voters.  The Gallup Poll of March 2-4^th shows her losing 5 points to Obama since February 11^th. That’s significant.

Before either candidate announced their intention to run, Hillary held a slender eleven point lead over Obama (29-18 in the Gallup poll of January 14^th).  But after Hillary’s announcement, she jumped out to a nineteen point advantage (40-21 in the Gallup survey of February 11^th).  But, in the most recent survey – March 4^th, her advantage has dwindled to fourteen points (36-22).

The Gallup Poll indicates that, like Mc Cain, Hillary’s negatives are more personal than her opponents’. While some disagree with her on specific issues, most object to her because they find her dishonest, associated with scandals and with Bill Clinton, power hungry.  A lot simply don’t like her. Those kind of negatives are very difficult to overcome.

On the positive side, many see her as highly experienced, knowledgeable, intelligent, and right on the issues.  And her gender is important.  Many cite the fact that she would be the first woman president as a big advantage.

But, according to the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll at the end of February, 48% of the voters have a negative opinion of her while 49% have a positive one. And the number of people who strongly dislike her has risen from 25% to 35%.

In contrast, Rudy receives positive ratings from 64% and has negatives of only 28%.

Sounds like Hillary isn’t wearing too well.

But these polls all predate Obama’s stirring remarks and Hillary’s blatant pandering in Selma, Alabama, where the Clintons and Obama helped to celebrate the 42^nd anniversary of the civil rights march.  Obama used the occasion to condemn what he called the anti-intellectualism of the African-American community where “if you conjugate a verb” you are seen as too “white.” 

Hillary, poorly imitating a southern drawl, tried to horn in on the event by claiming that the march not only enabled Obama’s candidacy, but her own as well. That’s not all – this week-end, she claimed to be  like JFK, when he ran as the first Catholic.

When new polls come out, reflecting the impact of their different performances in Selma, Obama will likely close the gap even further.

In any case, the past three weeks have all been about Obama.  He draws huge and adoring crowds while Hillary turns off voters with her scripted and rigid performances and her clumsy efforts to appeal to different audiences.  As voters get to know Obama more, his charisma shines through while Hillary’s artificiality becomes more obvious the better she is known.

IT COMES DOWN TO HILLARY AS THE EXPERIENCED ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE VS. OBAMA AS THE  CHARASMATIC NEW KID ON THE BLOCK

Voters overwhelmingly view Obama as a fresh and charismatic new face with new ideas. They also find him to be honest and admire his integrity. And Obama understands that – he constantly tells his audience that “its time to turn a new page,” a not-so-thinly-veiled reference to the Clinton dynasty.

Hillary runs on her name, her ability to raise money from the Democratic establishment, and her experience as First Lady and Senator.

Now that Hillary has flip-flopped on the Iraq War, there is not much difference between them on the issues.

So, it will come down to personality and whether the voters want another political dynasty and the order of succession to be Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton.

And Hillary’s “experience” is suspect.  As we discussed in our last two columns, it is totally derivative of Bill’s and has a Walter Mitty – I was there all along – quality to it.  A thorough search of Bill’s memoirs finds scant reference to Hillary’s “experience” other than perfunctory mentions of her as traveling with him or defenses of her conduct amid the White House scandals.  The examination of a campaign may find her “experience” to be bogus.

Copywrite 2007  -  Barry G.