a small dose of reality

The political team that famously used the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” to vault to victory in 1992 could be in need of a new mantra 15 years later: It’s the campaign, stupid.

Hillary Clinton has slipped from “inevitable” front-runner to second fiddle over the past two months, and political observers have chimed in with their take on what went wrong: No plan for after Super Tuesday. A poor caucus strategy. Her husband.

Leon Panetta, former White House chief of staff to Bill Clinton, is the latest Clinton loyalist to come out and criticize the campaign. And he suggests the problem was all of the above.

“It seems to me like they rolled the dice on Super Tuesday, thinking that would end it,” Panetta told The New York Observer. “And when it didn’t end it, they didn’t have a plan. And when it came to the caucus states, they did have a plan — which was to ignore them. I think those were serious mistakes.”

Since Feb. 5, when Barack Obama and Clinton ended the 22-state Super Tuesday marathon in a near-draw in terms of delegates, Obama has seized the lead in fundraising, contests won and total delegates. Clinton now is depending on a big comeback in the Ohio and Texas primaries next Tuesday, March 4, to turn the ship around.

Panetta put much of the blame on Clinton campaign strategist Mark Penn, comparing him to an old-school operative like Karl Rove who is “all about dividing people into smaller groups rather than taking the broader approach that was needed.”

He said Obama captured the desire for change in Washington, and that the call for such change was underestimated.

He also spoke cautiously about his former boss, according to the Observer, saying that Bill Clinton sometimes has “quick reactions to things” and that it’s the job of his staff to prepare him and allow him to let off steam before entering the public arena.

The former president caused a stir before the South Carolina primary by calling Obama’s opposition to the Iraq war a “fairy tale.” He also snapped at reporters on occasion.

Clinton’s superdelegates — party officials and insiders who go to the August convention free to support either candidate, regardless of their states’ primary and caucus results — have started to cross over.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Wednesday that one of Clinton’s high-profile superdelegate supporters, Georgia Rep. John Lewis, is formally switching his support to Obama. That was reported in The New York Times nearly two weeks ago, but a Lewis spokesman said at the time that the decision was not final. After some confusion over what the onetime civil rights leader would do, the Georgia congressman told the Journal-Constitution that “Barack Obama has tapped into something that is extraordinary.” He cited his Atlanta district’s preference for Obama in his decision to switch loyalties.

North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan, an ally of Bill Clinton, also endorsed Obama Wednesday, citing his record on trade.

Clinton’s own campaign has started to talk with more candor about her possibilities if she doesn’t carry Ohio and Texas on Tuesday.

“If she wins those, we then go on to April 22 in Pennsylvania,” Clinton campaign national chairman Terry McAuliffe told a business group in Madison, Wis. “If we don’t, then she has to make a decision on what she’s going to do.”

Bill Clinton has made similar comments.

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